Friday 22 February 2013

Isolating Variables: The Origin of Revolution


I initiated this assignment by doing research on the causes for revolutions in Russia, China, France, and Cuba.   After complete the research I scanned the infomartion for similarities between countries and generated this list:

1.     Poverty
2.     Class Distribution (large gap between rich and poor)
3.     Centralized power
4.     Dissatisfaction of working class (partial industrialization)
5.     Limited Resources
6.     Problematic Leader

I compared my list with my colleague’s, and  we discussed the issues with the variables that we chose.  My colleague more or less, proposed two separate causes.  The first being economic instability which she described as incompassing the class distributions,  poverty, as well as frivolous government spending.  She suggested for my variables list to group poverty, class distribution and dissatisdaction of working class, which I think I can agree with.  As well as the addition of frivolous government spending. Furthermore depending on how poverty is defined it could also encompass a limited amount of resources.   
The second variable suggested by my collegue was,  political unrest, meaning that the government was unstable and the nation was not satisfied with their policies.  I  do see how this is a contributor however I think that the political unrest is a consequence of the mode of government, in these cases a centralized one in combination with a problematic leader(whether it is a power hungry leader like Castro or a indecisive, uncaring Tsar like Nicolas II).
While discussing the variables that contribute to the origin of revolution I have decided that international relationships is also an important contributor.  In France we see that the poverty and government spending is going towards fighting in wars (where there is obviously a poor  relationship between nations).   Also, in Cuba the poor relationship with the Americans enabled/supported the Cuban people to rise up against their government.  
This assignment demonstrated how difficult determining variables can be.  All variables appear to be intermingled, each variable can be a consequence/side effect of another variable, constructing a vicious circle. Another issue is that there’s an infinite number of variables, did we think of them all?  Or perhaps because of the differences between countries  not all the variables will be identical.   I think understanding the limitations of isolating variables is very important for doing any research.

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